Projected Sales of New Album

[doctorwho]

In other forums, people are having fun guessing song names, the album name, the tour name, possible setlists, etc. So I thought we should have fun in this forum trying to predict first week sales and possible overall sales.

As I am in the U.S., I'll start with this country.

Coldplay just had a massive first week sales of their new album, selling nearly 720,000 copies (per SoundScan). Lil Wayne's "Tha Carter III" was the top album debut of the year after it sold a spectacular 1 million copies earlier this month. This proves that despite illegal downloads, a highly anticipated album can still sell massive quantities in the U.S.

As Paul McGuinness has stated, U2 still enjoy strong CD sales. Andwith legal downloads now available, this will definitely add to overall sales.

Due to the success of ATYCLB, HTDAAB had a huge first week in the U.S., selling nearly 850,000 copies. This easily makes it U2's biggest debut in the SoundScan era.

Given that U2 have been relatively quiet for a while (releasing DVD's and "Best Of's" are nice, but nothing too new there), the anticipation is high. HTDAAB also proved that U2 can have a huge first week. The new album may come out in November, which is also good as it kicks off the holiday shopping season. Also, with other artists proving that big first week sales are still possible, this bodes well for U2 to also have a big first week.

On the other hand, U2 is an aging band that the younger generation - those who mostly buy music - can't relate to as well. U2 fans in the U.S. are usually older - people who became fans in the late 80's or early 90's. HTDAAB was helped tremendously by the iPod commercial featuring "Vertigo". This was a great way to promote the album and reach a younger market. Can U2 replicate this type of success with a new single? While U2 should have no problems selling concert tickets, will they start becoming like the Rolling Stones - a band who sells boatloads of tickets, but not as many albums?

Without seeing what type of promotion there will be or having heard the first single, predicting is especially difficult - which is why this is fun. My guess is that there will still be a huge demand for new U2. I doubt U2 can replicate the success of the "Vertigo" iPod commercial, but a strong lead single will turn heads. U2's age - unavoidable - will decrease interest with younger people, but not to the point of a huge decline. Therefore, I'm predicting first week U.S. sales to be a bit less than Coldplay's, at this point. I'm predicting 650-700K.

In Europe, especially the U.K., where U2 remains wildly popular, I anticipate first week sales similar to HTDAAB - meaning it may hit Platinum in the first week (300,000 copies sold). In Canada, I'm anticipating the same - 2x Platinum within a week (200,000 copies sold).

Anyone else?

[ChargedVT]

It's a bit hard to guess an album's potential sales without hearing a shred of new music, BUT I'll give it a shot anyway. Yes the Coldplay had huge first week sales (across the board roughly the same as X&Y) but it will be interesting to see if it keeps selling and hits an eventual 10 million or dies out at 5 or 6. I would say it's good for at least 8 million, though.
Now you look at U2. Their last album sold 9+ million on the back of it seemingly being "good but not great". I personally love Htdaab but the general consensus seems to be as I said above. A truly classic new U2 album will sell a LOT. Remember, touring helps lure fans in as well, and the Vertigo tour sold out all over the world.
Whatever happens, and no matter how/good the album is received it will sell way over a million in the first week, even Pop did that with only 350k in the USA.
Personally, if the sales match or beat HTDAAB I'll be happy. You just don't see any 15-20 million selling albums any more, due to downloading.

[doctorwho]

X&Y by Coldplay started out with about 740K first week sales, but it finished with about 3.3M in the U.S. - in other words, very similar to HTDAAB, although U2's last effort launched with about 100K more that first week. Worldwide, I still think U2 outsells Coldplay.

I realize it's tough to anticipate sales, but I'm using buzz - the same way people often use buzz for a movie to predict the box office. Granted, there they have trailers. We don't have trailers, but there are some song titles and "beach clips". LOL!

I do agree that 10M is probably the top worldwide for just about any album - regardless of the artist - due to illegal downloading. The fact that ATYCLB and HTDAAB reached or surpassed that mark is very impressive. For a release to sell more, though, it needs to be a bigger hit in the U.S. and that is tough thanks to illegal downloads. However, I'm hoping now with legal downloading playing a far bigger role, there will be a push.

One thing that is needed that the last two albums lacked, are at least two Top 20 songs. "Beautiful Day" and "Vertigo" never reached the Top 20, but this was due to some odd ways Billboard did the Hot 100 back then and the fact that BD wasn't available for purchase in the U.S. Had Billboard counted legal downloads, "Vertigo" easily would have been a Top 10 hit for U2. But then, that's where it ends too. No other song really was a huge hit from that album. When one looks at JT, R&H and AB, there are at least two Top 20 hits from those albums (and in some cases more). Top 20 hits mean the songs are being played, heard and legally downloaded - it keeps the album going. So in connection with the tour, U2 need at least two really big songs in the U.S. That will enable the album to get that extra boost and reach 4 or even 5M in sales.

But going back to first week only, without hearing a thing or seeing the album cover, U2's look, etc., I am predicting about 700K in sales. That may change once I hear any new song.

[fna692002]

Its all gonna depend on promotion.

As stated Vertigo had HUGE promo and the song reached a massive audience. It hit a chord with older people and younger people. The one thing I have noticed about U2 fans, esp the young ones is that they come enjoy the party for a while, than move on. Literally everyone at my school had Vertigo on the Ipod, but now most those people have moved on. 04 was 4yrs ago, and now U2 have a whole new generation of music fans to win over. Their core fanbase is huge as well, but in the US, its all about if you can win over that young crowd of the time and with ATYCLB and HTDAAB they did each time. What U2 also have working on their side is that video outlets VH1 and MTV (if they even really truely matter anymore) seem to have not wrote them off yet and still give them specials and video play. I'm gonna say they can hit around 750-800k again in sales. IMO I think if promoted right and the first single catches on 900k is even a nice shot.

[Native_Son]

first week sales are going to depend on the 1st single in the US. another iPod advert would be VERY important! anywhere between 600-900k i think. now that downloads count on the hot 100, the possibility of a #1 single is realistic. coldplay have done it and maybe vertigo would have too.

in the UK i'd go for (same as HTDAAB) 200k. can't see it selling much more than this.
though hopefully it wont be released same week as oasis new album (6th oct?)

Mediatraffic again same as HTDAAB ~ 1.8m

Album sales depend more on hit singles than on the overall quality of the album. hopefully they wont release a different 2nd single in US from rest of world this time.

i think 10million will be total sales.

in a commercial sense they need to get the 1st single right. i'm sure they will.

[popacrobat]

I think it's going to depend mostly upon the first single. If they have a massive hit in the vein of Vertigo or Beautiful Day- Vertigo as I said in my thread speculating if they'd have a #1 single- would have easily been a top 10 hit if they counted downloading- then I think you will see first week sales in the 700-800K range.

[vaz02]

Originally Posted by Native_Son though hopefully it wont be released same week as oasis new album (6th oct?)

You and me both, as great as u2 are, Oasis have a bigger UK fanbase so they will claim the top spot. I think u2's release will be closer to November than September.

[Yahweh]

It would be nice if they could sell 10-12 million with this album.

First week sales worldwide 1.5 million would be nice....I dont think they will be getting to the 20 million area but I can tell you that I will be doing my part

[mikeuk]

As others have said - it all depends on the first single (and to a lesser degree the buzz around and reviews of the album). If it really is a classic then 10m plus (4m plus in Europe) will be achieved although perhaps not as quickly as in the past. In the UK 150k plus first week virtually guaranteed and worldwide sales of around 1.3/4 m possible. Mike

[sue4u2]

Originally Posted by mikeuk As others have said - it all depends on the first single (and to a lesser degree the buzz around and reviews of the album). If it really is a classic Mike

So what you're saying is a "classic" is defined by it's first weeks sale's/single/reviews?
I respectfully, disagree.
Were JT or AB classics in their first week?
you know, just asking?

[mikeuk]

Originally Posted by sue4u2 So what you're saying is a "classic" is defined by it's first weeks sale's/single/reviews? I respectfully, disagree. Were JT or AB classics in their first week? you know, just asking?

no - not what I was attempting to communicate. two sep issues really 1st week sales influenced by the factors I mentioned whereas overall high sales cica 10m probably only possible in the current climate if it is a classic Mike

[COBL_04]

Here in Australia Viva La Vida is being hailed as the saviour of music, because until then album sales had been so pathetically poor that as many as a few thousand sales could land you the #1 spot.

I can't see U2 selling more than Coldplay sadly, though they should definitely still land the #1 spot.

Going to be extremely hard for them to get a #1 single, very hard to crack the top five, perhaps even the top ten, but should get a top 20 single. I think Vertigo peaked at about #5, Sometimes I believe hung around the #11-#20 bracket, and then from memory I think COBL may have debuted #19 and then plummeted.

I can see them becoming more and more like the Stones, with ticket sales eclipsing album sales by mammoth margins, especially if they continue into their sixties.

[Strongbow]

The music industry continues to collapse every year and album sales are really becoming less of a gauge of popularity. If this continues, the only true gauge of popularity will be concert ticket sales.

Take a look at the first 6 months of 2001 compared to the first 6 months of 2008.

In the first 6 months of 2001, 37 albums sold 1,000,000 or more copies according to soundscan in the United States. In 2008, ONLY 3 ALBUMS sold 1,000,000 or more copies in the first 6 months of the year according to soundscan in the United States.

In 2005, U2's HTDAAB sold nearly 3 million copies and finished at #8 on the year end album chart from Billboard for 2005 in the United States.

In 2007, Daughtry had the #1 album of the year on Billboard's year end chart in the United States with soundscan sales of only 3.4 million. In the #2 position was an album by AKON with 2.7 million in sales, less than what HTDAAB had done two years earlier for a #8 year end position. The #10 album on the year end chart in 2007 only did 1.9 million in sales.

On the Billboard 200 back in 2000 in the USA, the #100 album would normally sale well over 15,000 copies with the #200 album selling over 7,000 copies in any given week. Today, the #100 album barely clears the 6,000 mark and the #200 barely clears the 3,000 mark. Today its possible to make the top 40 with only 10,000 copies sold, and sometimes as little as 25,000 copies sold in order to make the top 10.

Coldplay's sales so far are impressive given the current market conditions, but it remains to be seen how long they will be able to keep this sales level up. Given the current conditions, if the new U2 album charts as well and for as long as HTDAAB did, given the current market, I think your looking at 6 million in sales with 2 million of that coming from the USA. Its a lower actual sales level, but essentially equal to what HTDAAB did relative to the rest of the industry in the current market. If the new album does better and actually equals HTDAAB sales of 9 million worldwide and over 3 million in the United States, U2 will likely have the #1 album worldwide and in the USA of 2009.

In any event Coldplay is still light years behind U2 when it comes to selling concert tickets. Coldplay has still not soldout single arena shows in cities like Philadelphia and Washington DC as well as second arena shows in Chicago, LA, and New York City. U2 were doing better concert business than that on the Unforgettable Fire tour, nearly double that in fact on the UF tour in the big markets.

So in terms of overall popularity, U2 is still way ahead of Coldplay.

[vaz02]

Good summary, cheers for that strongbow.
I dont suppose your name is taken from the cider ?

[andyuk]

Originally Posted by vaz02 You and me both, as great as u2 are, Oasis have a bigger UK fanbase so they will claim the top spot. I think u2's release will be closer to November than September.

Actully on u2 and Oasis last studio albums they had almost identical first weeks sales in the UK